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| + | '''Dr. Marion King Hubbert''' (born 1903, died 1989), know as M. King Hubbert, was geologist born in Texas, USA. He was a former member of Technocracy Inc. and developed the Peak Oil theory of oil production otherwise known as The Hubbert Peak. |
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| − | {{Wikipedia}} |
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| − | <!-- Image with unknown copyright status removed: [[Image: Hubbertk.gif|thumb|right|100px|M. King Hubbert.]] -->'''Marion King Hubbert''' ([[October 5]], [[1903]] – [[October 11]], [[1989]]) was a [[geoscientist]] who worked at the [[Shell Oil Company|Shell]] research lab in [[Houston]], [[Texas]]. He made several important contributions to [[geology]] and [[geophysics]], most notably the [[Hubbert curve]] and [[Hubbert peak theory]] (or [[peak oil]]), with important [[political]] ramifications. He was often referred to as "M. King Hubbert" or "King Hubbert". |
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==Biography== |
==Biography== |
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| − | [[Image:hubbert.jpg|thumb|M. King Hubbert (outlined in blue) and other prominent leaders of the [[technocratic movement]]]] |
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| − | Hubbert was born in [[San Saba, Texas]]. He attended the [[University of Chicago]], where he received his [[bachelor of science|B.S.]] in 1926, his [[master of science|M.S.]] in 1928, and his [[Ph.D]] in 1937, studying [[geology]], [[mathematics]], and [[physics]]. He worked as an assistant geologist for the Amerada Petroleum Company for two years while pursuing his Ph.D. He joined the Shell Oil Company in 1943, retiring from that firm in 1964. After he retired from Shell, he became a senior research [[geophysics|geophysicist]] for the [[United States Geological Survey]] until his retirement in 1976. He also held positions as a professor of geology and geophysics at [[Stanford University]] from 1963 to 1968, and as a professor at [[University of California, Berkeley|UC Berkeley]] from 1973 to 1976. |
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| + | He attended the University of Chicago where he obtained a degree with triple majors in 1929. He obtained a PhD in 1937. He worked as a teaching assistant at the University of Chicago from 1928 to 1931 then became an instructor at Columbia University, New York, in 1931. He met Howard Scot about this time and became one of the founding members of Technocracy Inc., where he contributed to the more scientific presentation of their technocratic ideas and was on the staff of the Continental Head Quarter (CHQ) of Technocracy Inc. Hubbert shared his accommodation with Scott until Hubbert married. <ref name="Elsner" >Henry Elsner, jr., "The Technocrats: Prophets of Automation" Syracuse University Press. 1967</ref> [[Image:hubbert.jpg|thumb|M. King Hubbert (outlined in blue) and other prominent leaders of the technocratic movement]]]] |
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| − | In the winter of 1931, [[M. King Hubbert]] joined the staff of [[Columbia University]] and met Scott<ref name="BEW8"/>. According to Hubbert, he encouraged Scott to revive the [[Technical Alliance]]; the resulting group was formalised in 1933 as [[Technocracy Incorporated]], with Scott as leader.<ref name="BEW8"/> Hubbert was a member of the Board of Governors that founded the organization, and served as Secretary; his membership of and involvement with Technocracy would be investigated in 1943 by his employers, the [[Board of Economic Warfare]]<ref>Hubbert investigation (1943), p41 (p50 of PDF)</ref>. Hubbert, a Geoscientist, would later give his name to the "[[Hubbert Peak]]", otherwise known as [[Peak Oil]] theory. |
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| + | In 1942 he moved away from New York and as a result of his work departed from Technocracy Inc. staff. He became a senior analyst of the Board of Economic Warfare in Washington in 1942. He later worked an analyst for Shell Oil Company where he developed the Hubbert Theory of oil, otherwise known as peak oil. He later served at a number other research and administrative posts. He was a member of the United Nations Scientific Conference on the Conservation and Utilization of Resources. |
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| + | == Hubbert and Technocracy == |
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| − | Hubbert was an avid [[Technocracy movement|Technocrat]]. He co-founded [[Technocracy Incorporated]] with [[Howard Scott]] and contributed significantly to the '''Technocracy Study Course''', the precedent document of that group which advocates a [[Non-market economics]] form of [[Energy Accounting]],<ref>http://telstar.ote.cmu.edu/environ/m3/s3/05account.shtml Environmental Decision making, Science and Technology</ref>as opposed to the current [[Price System]] method.<ref>Cutler J. Cleveland, [http://www.eoearth.org/article/Biophysical_economics "Biophysical economics"], ''Encyclopedia of Earth'', Last updated: September 14, 2006.</ref> |
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| − | Hubbert was a member of the Board of Governors, and served as Secretary of education to that organisation<ref>http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/Technocracy1943.pdf Hubbert investigation (1943), p41 (p50 of PDF)</ref> |
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| ⚫ | Hubbert was responsible for the education aspects of Technocracy Inc. and was the main author of the Technocracy Study Course used to teach Technocracy Inc.’s version of technocracy. He also organised the East European Socialist Section of Technocracy Inc. in Cleveland.<ref name="AkinEW" >William E. Akin, "Technocracy and the American Dream: The Technocrat Movement, 1900-1941" University of California Press. 1977 ISBN 0-520-03110-5</ref> |
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| ⚫ | Hubbert was responsible for the education aspects of Technocracy Inc. and was the main author of the |
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| − | == |
+ | ==Peak Oil Theory== |
| − | {{see|Oil depletion}} |
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| − | {{PeakOil}} |
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| − | [[Image:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg|right|thumb|A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by [[M. King Hubbert]] in 1956.]] |
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| − | Hubbert made several contributions to geophysics, including a mathematical demonstration that [[Rock (geology)|rock]] in the [[Earth's crust]], because it is under immense pressure in large areas, should exhibit [[plasticity]], similar to [[clay]]. This demonstration explained the observed results that the Earth' s crust deforms over time. He also studied the flow of underground fluids. |
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| + | As a geologist for the Shell Oil Company he analyses the production life time for oil wells and noticed they followed typical pattern of rising to a peak, where 50% of the oil was removed and then the production would start to fall. Hubbert then extended this to oil fields as a whole and successfully predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Although his prediction of world oil production peaking in 2000 was incorrect due to new finds and economic pressures the general rule of oil production following a bell curve still holds. Hubbert published his first scientific paper on peak oil in 1949. |
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| − | Hubbert is most well-known for his studies on the capacities of [[oil field]]s and [[natural gas]] reserves. He predicted that, for any given geographical area, from an individual [[oil field]] to the planet as a whole, the rate of [[petroleum]] production of the reserve over time would resemble a [[bell curve]]. Based on his theory, in a paper<ref name="Hubbert1956">Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956[http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf]</ref> that he presented to the 1956 meeting of the [[American Petroleum Institute]] in San Antonio, Texas, Hubbert made the prediction that overall [[peak oil|petroleum production would peak]] in the [[United States]] between the late 1960s and the early 1970s. He became famous when this prediction came true in 1970. The curve he used in his analysis is known as the [[Hubbert curve]], and the peak of the curve is known as the [[Hubbert peak]]. |
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| − | Between October 17, 1973, and March 1974, the [[Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries]] (OPEC) ceased shipments of petroleum to the United States, causing what has been called the [[1973 energy crisis]]. In 1975, with the United States still suffering from high petroleum prices, the [[United States National Academy of Sciences|National Academy of Sciences]] confirmed their acceptance of Hubbert's calculations on oil and natural gas depletion, and acknowledged that their earlier, more optimistic estimates had been incorrect. This garnered great media attention for Hubbert. |
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| + | * [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/science1949/ Energy from Fossil Fuels] |
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| − | In 1974, Hubbert projected that global oil production would peak in 1995 at 40-GB/yr "if current trends continue".<ref>[http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/natgeog.htm "Oil, the Dwindling Treasure"] ''[[National Geographic]]'', June 1974</ref> [[Predicting the timing of peak oil|Various subsequent predictions]] have been made by others as trends have fluctuated in the intervening years. Hubbert's theory, and [[Peak_oil#Possible_effects_and_consequences_of_Peak_Oil|its implications for the world economy]], remain controversial. |
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| + | * [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/1956/1956.pdf Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels] |
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| + | * [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/wwf1976/ Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History] |
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| − | Originally convinced that [[solar power]] was too diffuse to be used, by 1988 Hubbert had reversed his position and believed that solar power would be a practical [[renewable energy]] replacement for fossil fuels. |
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| − | ===Summary of Contributions=== |
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| − | Hubbert's contributions to science have been summarized<ref>http://www.energy.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/HubbertCycleLecture%20Patzek%20UWMadison%20Oct%202006.pdf</ref> as follows: |
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| − | * Correct statement of [[Darcy's Law]]. |
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| − | * Mathematical demonstration that rock in the [[Crust (geology)|Earth's crust]] is plastic, and that the Earth's crust deforms over time. |
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| − | * Prediction of migration paths of [[hydrocarbon]]s. |
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| − | * Demonstration that the Earth's endowment of crude oil is finite, that the rate of oil production reaches a maximum (i.e., peaks) when approximately half of the original resource remains, and thereafter goes into irreversible decline. |
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| − | ==Accolades== |
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| − | Hubbert was a member of the [[United States National Academy of Sciences|National Academy of Sciences]] and the [[American Academy of Arts and Sciences]]. He was long affiliated with the [[Geological Society of America]], receiving their [[Arthur L. Day Medal]] in 1954, being elected President of the Society in 1962, and receiving the Society's [[Penrose Medal]] in 1973. He received the Vetlesen Prize from the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation and [[Columbia University]] in 1981. |
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| − | ==Citation== |
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| − | * ''Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.'' |
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| − | ==See also== |
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| − | {{Portal|Earth_sciences|Terra.png}} |
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| − | {{Portal|Science|Nuvola apps kalzium.png}} |
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| − | *[[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas]] (ASPO) |
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| − | *[[Technocracy Incorporated]] |
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| − | *[[Technocracy movement]] |
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| − | *[[Fred Meissner]] |
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==References== |
==References== |
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| + | <references/> |
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| − | 1. ↑ Elsner, jr., Henry (1967). The Technocrats: Prophets of Automation. Syracuse University Press. |
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| − | 2. ↑ Akin, William E. (1977). Technocracy and the American Dream: The Technocrat Movement, 1900-1941. University of California Press. ISBN 0-520-03110-5. |
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| − | *[http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/Bibliography.htm M. King Hubbert Bibliography] |
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| − | *[http://www.mkinghubbert.com/ Tribute to M. King Hubbert] |
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| − | *[http://www.technocracy.org/Archives/Technical%20Alliance%20Profiles-r.htm Technical Alliance profiles. Hubbert was a later member of the Technical Alliance... he encouraged Scott to reestablish it and publish its findings] |
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| − | {{Shell oil}} |
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| − | {{Peak oil}} |
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| − | {{DEFAULTSORT:Hubbert, Marion King}} |
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| − | [[Category:1903 births]] |
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| − | [[Category:1989 deaths]] |
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| − | [[Category:American geophysicists]] |
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| − | [[Category:People associated with peak oil]] |
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| − | [[Category:People from Texas]] |
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| − | [[Category:Penrose Medal winners]] |
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| − | [[Category:People from Houston, Texas|People from Houston]] |
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| − | [[Category:People associated with energy]] |
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| − | [[Category:Technocracy movement]] |
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| − | [[Category:Royal Dutch Shell]] |
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Revision as of 16:23, 28 December 2015
Dr. Marion King Hubbert (born 1903, died 1989), know as M. King Hubbert, was geologist born in Texas, USA. He was a former member of Technocracy Inc. and developed the Peak Oil theory of oil production otherwise known as The Hubbert Peak.
Biography
He attended the University of Chicago where he obtained a degree with triple majors in 1929. He obtained a PhD in 1937. He worked as a teaching assistant at the University of Chicago from 1928 to 1931 then became an instructor at Columbia University, New York, in 1931. He met Howard Scot about this time and became one of the founding members of Technocracy Inc., where he contributed to the more scientific presentation of their technocratic ideas and was on the staff of the Continental Head Quarter (CHQ) of Technocracy Inc. Hubbert shared his accommodation with Scott until Hubbert married. [1]
M. King Hubbert (outlined in blue) and other prominent leaders of the technocratic movement
]]
In 1942 he moved away from New York and as a result of his work departed from Technocracy Inc. staff. He became a senior analyst of the Board of Economic Warfare in Washington in 1942. He later worked an analyst for Shell Oil Company where he developed the Hubbert Theory of oil, otherwise known as peak oil. He later served at a number other research and administrative posts. He was a member of the United Nations Scientific Conference on the Conservation and Utilization of Resources.
Hubbert and Technocracy
Hubbert was responsible for the education aspects of Technocracy Inc. and was the main author of the Technocracy Study Course used to teach Technocracy Inc.’s version of technocracy. He also organised the East European Socialist Section of Technocracy Inc. in Cleveland.[2]
Peak Oil Theory
As a geologist for the Shell Oil Company he analyses the production life time for oil wells and noticed they followed typical pattern of rising to a peak, where 50% of the oil was removed and then the production would start to fall. Hubbert then extended this to oil fields as a whole and successfully predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Although his prediction of world oil production peaking in 2000 was incorrect due to new finds and economic pressures the general rule of oil production following a bell curve still holds. Hubbert published his first scientific paper on peak oil in 1949.
External Links
- Energy from Fossil Fuels
- Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels
- Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History
References
- ↑ Henry Elsner, jr., "The Technocrats: Prophets of Automation" Syracuse University Press. 1967
- ↑ William E. Akin, "Technocracy and the American Dream: The Technocrat Movement, 1900-1941" University of California Press. 1977 ISBN 0-520-03110-5